The wager is on the most stable instrument in the market: human flaw. Not innovation. Not disruption. The oldest recurring position there is.
Novelty is the myth we tell capital so it feels alive. But scan the ledger back far enough and every panic has a precedent, every mania a prior name.
There is a Chinese phrase I circled for years without owning: study the old to know the new. Not poetry. A method.
History does not repeat its costumes. It repeats its arithmetic — the same greed, the same fear, wearing this decade's ticker symbol.
Read enough of it and the future stops being prediction. It becomes recognition.